On March 4, South Korea’s KOSPI 200 stock index plunged 12%, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading.
The selloff followed months of extraordinary gains. From its April 2025 low, the index had more than tripled in value.
But Chris Carolan, in the Asian-Pacific Short Term Update, warned that the parabolic rise was nearing exhaustion.
What We Said:
On Thursday, February 26, Chris told subscribers that the rally was entering a blowoff phase:
“The KOSPI 200 index has advanced every day following the New Year’s holiday. Today’s advance is over 4%! This mania will end badly; they all do. We are on watch for a blowoff top.”
The next day, the index turned down and closed lower for the first time since the holiday break. Chris notified Short Term Update subscribers on Sunday, March 1:
“South Korea’s KOSPI 200 index fell Friday, putting us on alert for a potential top in place.”
As the decline continued, the market broke a key level that suggested the advance had indeed ended. Chris updated subscribers again on Tuesday, March 3:
“The fevered, parabolic advance in the KOSPI 200 index has broken. Breadth oscillator readings have quickly turned very negative… A fifth-wave top is in place.”
What Happened Next:
We’ll let the headlines speak for themselves:
In the aftermath of the crash, many news reports pointed to various reasons for the collapse: mostly pinned to the conflagration in the Middle East.
But ALL of those explanations attempt to describe why the market fell.
Elliott wave analysis had already identified the conditions typical of a market nearing a turning point – extreme sentiment, weakening internals and completed wave structures – days before the headlines appeared.
Get Our Current Forecasts & Analysis:
Subscribers to Elliott Wave International’s regional and global services receive ongoing analysis of major markets as these patterns unfold. Here are some options:
Asian-Pacific Markets Coverage
The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast and Asian-Pacific Short Term Update cover key markets across the region — including South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Australia — with Elliott wave charts and analysis.
Global Markets Coverage
For a broader global perspective, Global Market Perspective provides Elliott wave analysis of the main Asian-Pacific, European and U.S. stock indexes, currencies, commodities and financial markets worldwide.
EWI’s Research is Trusted by Thousands of Independent Investors and Market Professionals at the World’s Largest Institutions
