The Idea that Peace and War Drive Stock Prices Is a Myth

Does an event as momentous as war affect the trend of the stock market?

Most people think so.

But the data don’t back it up.

Wars have no consistent causal effect on stocks: Sometimes the stock market rises during large-scale conflicts. Sometimes it falls. Sometimes it does both!

Just examine these charts:

There’s no reliable connection between war and stock prices. It’s a MYTH.

Chapters 1 and 2 of the Socionomic Theory of Finance debunk 12 more myths that most investors fall for.

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